5) Dr. Ariel Meroz

Conifer forests established by the Jewish National Fund (JNF) constitute one of Israel’s most iconic landscape features and remain central to the national ethos of “the flowering of the wilderness.” Initiated during the British Mandate in the 1930s and expanded substantially from the 1950s onward, these forests were planted across a broad range of ecological zones, including semi-arid regions situated at the northern edge of the desert. Their resilience under intensifying climatic stress, however, has become increasingly uncertain. The extreme drought of 2025—during which precipitation across multiple monitoring stations reached only 50–67% of the annual average—caused severe desiccation and widespread physiological decline. An estimated 40–60% of conifer stands in southern afforestation areas exhibited significant dieback, constituting one of the most extensive forest mortality events recorded in Israel. As the 2026 winter continues to stall, tree conditions in many affected areas is further deteriorating, indicating a progressive and ongoing collapse. This decline has effectively advanced the desert boundary northward, raising concerns regarding the long-term viability of non-native conifer plantations under accelerating aridification. Collectively, these events underscore the vulnerability of large-scale, water-limited afforestation projects to climate extremes and highlight the urgent need to reevaluate species selection, management paradigms, and ecological planning in a rapidly warming region.